According to the various news sources, Black Friday was a downright cash-cow. Some sources said record breaking. Presumably this weekend is more of the same, both in stores and on the Internet, although today was supposed to be Small Business Saturday and I really hope that went well. Monday is Cyber Monday, and by all accounts retailers should be burping loudly by Tuesday.
I got to thinking about this and I'd like to make a prediction. The US is in a depression. They tell us that unemployment is "hovering around 9%" or so, and, using the Great Depression as a comparative guide, that just ain't so. During the Great Depression, anyone (OK, any man, since Rosie doesn't get hired until WWII) between the age of 18 and the age of retirement that did not have a job was considered unemployed. Period. Today, that simply is not the case. You might already have a sense of all this, but that 9% or so they keep droning on about represents the number of Americans who are receiving unemployment benefits. They make it sound like this static group of people who cannot find work but it ain't so.
Unemployment benefits in the US were extended to 99 weeks--almost 2 years!--and for many that 99 weeks has come and gone. Once their off the unemployment rolls, they are no longer counted in the unemployment number. Still buying that 9%? There are also factors like underemployed, etc., but the formulas and data they use to present current unemployment figures simply ignore a lot of this "reality" nonsense, allowing your favorite media to just keep repeating the 9% number, give or take, to keep things calm.
The other issue here, and I don't have links or data at the ready but I don't think this is much of a stretch, is that most just do not have surplus cash floating around. I know a lot of small businesses in this area, including ours, that go from pay period to pay period hoping the business climate will improve. None of us dare by capital equipment, etc., or otherwise stick our necks out--even a little. Meanwhile, national statistics say that 1 in 7 adult Americans is on public assistance, and 1 in 4 (yep, FOUR) American children is on public nutrition assistance. There are probably numbers to be had on the number of underwater mortgages, etc., and other data that shows we're not the land o' plenty that we're supposed to be. Don't get me started on the national debt.
Given all this, we have a record-setting Black Friday on our hands, probably followed by a few more days of retail bliss. So, given all of the aforementioned economic woe, how can America pop out of its current depression for a few days to scarf up all those retail goods? (This year even gets bonus points for pepper spray and even a shooting on top of the usual mayhem.)
My prediction here is that come March, 2012, the end of the first quarter of the new year, it's going to be really hard to polish the turd that is our economy. My guess is that this "record setting spending" is in fact a glimpse of people parting with whatever spare cash they had left, and running up credit cards (you'd think the hard lesson would have set in more by now?) as a sort of swan song buying binge. Yes, the advertised deals looked to be pretty amazing, and the smart shopper probably did really well over the course of this holiday weekend. The question is...did they have any business going out at all? My guess is that, for many, the answer is no. They should have stayed home, taken stock of what they had, and circled the wagons accordingly. However, we've been conditioned for many years to buy and consume, and my observation is that this Black Friday is stoic proof of how many Americans can not or will not back off from those impulses.
So assuming Black Friday, and now through the Christmas holiday, hangs in there as happy retail time, what happens in March 2012? Elaborating on my prediction, I think what we're going to see is a look back to this Black Friday, realize that America popped a cork they could not afford to pop, and know this to be a fact because retail numbers for that first quarter are going to be grim if not abysmal. The holidays are over; there is no more cash in the coffee can, and the credit card bills are coming in. Desperate retailers might find themselves trying to keep floating sales and unbelievable deals, but America won't have many sitting on the bench ready to go into that game. What happens then? I have friends who do commercial real estate and 100% of them have been, and continue to as needed, lowering the rent for the tenants because there is no one standing in line to fill that space and even a little income is better than no income. How low can they go?
I don't like it. It's bad enough that the true meaning of Thanksgiving and Christmas have been almost completely obscured by commercialism, but I just have this creeping feeling that Black Friday, 2011, may go down in history as Binge Black Friday that tipped America over some kind of edge. Let's hope I'm wrong.
Dave
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Occupy LA and Soylent Green
I'm not necessarily a movie buff, but there are a number of films that stick with me for one reason or another. One of these is Soylent Green, a futuristic film set in the future when overpopulation is rampant and food is hard to come by. Others of this genre are films like Bladerunner, Rollerball, Logan's Run, and so on. Probably cheesy by today's standards, but for me these films offered a glimpse into what things might be like if we all just keep rolling along as-is.
One thing that I see in these films now, that I didn't necessarily see when I watched them, was that there was really only two classes of people: A small number of the "haves" on top, and the swarming masses of "have-nots" that fill the cities. There is probably a theoretical middle-class in there somewhere, although against those settings it was probably more of a "better off than others" kind of thing because the "haves" all seem to live in towers or behind high walls. (In fact, that's something I'm trying to keep an eye on these days: As the middle class effectively goes away, the resentment and hatred of those on top increases, and with that I think so will the need--real or perceived--for those on top to protect themselves. Therefore, I believe private security, more so than just basic rent-a-cops, will be a growth industry for decades to come.)
The whole Occupy movement bothers me for a number of reasons, and it's things like "I don't want to work, just give me free stuff" that cause me to feel that way. I'd say that "gathering of frustration" is a more likely name, since there doesn't seem to be a short list of specific things that, if changed or at least addressed, would allow everyone to go home. Such as, a real jobs plan. A realistic way for people to find work and sustain themselves as they look for better opportunity. However, that seems like folly, at least for now, in that according to what we see in the images and hear in the video clips, these guys are stuck on "gimme" with presumably some notion that all of this, somehow, is going to boil over in their favor.
Occupy LA struck me today because of what the city is offering up to the occupiers. You may have seen it in the news; the city wants them off the property, so they're offering both a 10,000 square foot facility and a somewhat vague "free farmland so people can grow their own food" (I'm paraphrasing) and I'm stunned by both. The office space is near city hall, and how is this going to work? Judging by what we see in the streets and in the parks, I'm going to go ahead and guess that the Occupy Office is not exactly going to have an office manager and a dress code. Instead, I'd look for an ocean of tents and campsites, well beyond what the building codes had in mind for a space of that size. (Seriously, after a month, would you want to clean the restroom?) Somehow, I'm imagining "Soylent Green: The Early Days" with this very office serving as ground zero. There will be no literal Soylent Green, but what do you want to bet that truckloads of emergency rations start showing up as a regular part of this circus?
The farmland thing is equally interesting. A tax-free free-for-all, dominated by squatter's rights and ultimately run by those that remember the fundamentals of our species (read: top dog.) A victory garden alone isn't going to do it for anyone. People need stuff, but I wouldn't look to these Obamaville's to be the Renascence of humble industries like blacksmithing, leatherwork, tinsmithing, and other throwback skills that actually make some sense and would, combined with the farming, provide some basis of village life. Teachers and doctors trade their skills for goods and services provided by others. You know, a community.
But, I digress into a conservative cesspool where people are actually interested in working to their potential and embracing common sense. This free farmland things is band aid at best, trying to give the occupiers a place to go so they don't crap on the lawn of city hall. So they get bussed out to farmland. Guess what? Who pays for the porta-johns? Where do they send the tax bill? Look what a few days of Woodstock did to that farm in New York. And this is different...how? "Tradespeople" are more likely to be drug dealers (based on what we've seen so far) and given the rapes, murders, and so on in public parks and squares, my guess would be that, at best, law enforcement and medical teams would go as far as the perimeter and then stop.
So, city of Los Angeles, I would encourage you to look ahead to see what these two footholds are actually going to cost you. They might sleep on your lawn at night, but office space and farm land isn't going to keep them away during the day. They do not want to work, but they do expect to be fed, housed, and otherwise paid for, and their patience wears thin. Good luck with that.
Dave
One thing that I see in these films now, that I didn't necessarily see when I watched them, was that there was really only two classes of people: A small number of the "haves" on top, and the swarming masses of "have-nots" that fill the cities. There is probably a theoretical middle-class in there somewhere, although against those settings it was probably more of a "better off than others" kind of thing because the "haves" all seem to live in towers or behind high walls. (In fact, that's something I'm trying to keep an eye on these days: As the middle class effectively goes away, the resentment and hatred of those on top increases, and with that I think so will the need--real or perceived--for those on top to protect themselves. Therefore, I believe private security, more so than just basic rent-a-cops, will be a growth industry for decades to come.)
The whole Occupy movement bothers me for a number of reasons, and it's things like "I don't want to work, just give me free stuff" that cause me to feel that way. I'd say that "gathering of frustration" is a more likely name, since there doesn't seem to be a short list of specific things that, if changed or at least addressed, would allow everyone to go home. Such as, a real jobs plan. A realistic way for people to find work and sustain themselves as they look for better opportunity. However, that seems like folly, at least for now, in that according to what we see in the images and hear in the video clips, these guys are stuck on "gimme" with presumably some notion that all of this, somehow, is going to boil over in their favor.
Occupy LA struck me today because of what the city is offering up to the occupiers. You may have seen it in the news; the city wants them off the property, so they're offering both a 10,000 square foot facility and a somewhat vague "free farmland so people can grow their own food" (I'm paraphrasing) and I'm stunned by both. The office space is near city hall, and how is this going to work? Judging by what we see in the streets and in the parks, I'm going to go ahead and guess that the Occupy Office is not exactly going to have an office manager and a dress code. Instead, I'd look for an ocean of tents and campsites, well beyond what the building codes had in mind for a space of that size. (Seriously, after a month, would you want to clean the restroom?) Somehow, I'm imagining "Soylent Green: The Early Days" with this very office serving as ground zero. There will be no literal Soylent Green, but what do you want to bet that truckloads of emergency rations start showing up as a regular part of this circus?
The farmland thing is equally interesting. A tax-free free-for-all, dominated by squatter's rights and ultimately run by those that remember the fundamentals of our species (read: top dog.) A victory garden alone isn't going to do it for anyone. People need stuff, but I wouldn't look to these Obamaville's to be the Renascence of humble industries like blacksmithing, leatherwork, tinsmithing, and other throwback skills that actually make some sense and would, combined with the farming, provide some basis of village life. Teachers and doctors trade their skills for goods and services provided by others. You know, a community.
But, I digress into a conservative cesspool where people are actually interested in working to their potential and embracing common sense. This free farmland things is band aid at best, trying to give the occupiers a place to go so they don't crap on the lawn of city hall. So they get bussed out to farmland. Guess what? Who pays for the porta-johns? Where do they send the tax bill? Look what a few days of Woodstock did to that farm in New York. And this is different...how? "Tradespeople" are more likely to be drug dealers (based on what we've seen so far) and given the rapes, murders, and so on in public parks and squares, my guess would be that, at best, law enforcement and medical teams would go as far as the perimeter and then stop.
So, city of Los Angeles, I would encourage you to look ahead to see what these two footholds are actually going to cost you. They might sleep on your lawn at night, but office space and farm land isn't going to keep them away during the day. They do not want to work, but they do expect to be fed, housed, and otherwise paid for, and their patience wears thin. Good luck with that.
Dave
Sunday, November 20, 2011
I'll thank you not to condition me
I have an interest in propaganda. It was probably all those great World War II posters that sparked my interest in the subject, and then at one point a local community college offered a class and I took it. I only took that one class, but I still have the books, still have the movie list (more or less) and I definitely keep my propaganda enthusiast hat on as I consume any political media—especially political ads, where you really get the cream of the crop.
I find what I’ve studied helpful when I watch those ads because if nothing else you get the basics. Things that are Bad are shown in black-and-white, usually accompanied by an ominous soundtrack. Things that are Good spring to life in vivid color, with the soundtrack switching to powerful, moving audio that helps reinforce the Good you are now watching. This technique goes way back, but you’re very likely to keep seeing it because it works.
I’m tempted to keep running with the pure propaganda thing, but what I want to talk about here is conditioning, which in itself contains elements of propaganda because the basic idea is to alter your behavior. All of us get some kind of conditioning our entire lives, but where I’d like to go with this is some of the more recent American social conditioning, and how well it’s starting to pay off.
I believe the first major step came in the form of Political Correctness, born in the 1980’s if memory serves and a great step forward for those looking to condition the thinking of the American public forever. I don’t think PC really took off until then because prior to that it would have had difficulty taking root, in that most Americans had no problem showing some backbone and had little or no hesitancy in showing some personal responsibility.
So why the switch? What was it about the 1980’s that enabled this fundamental shift? In my opinion it was the introduction of fear by means of a legal system that had transformed itself from a profession into an industry, manifested by the dawn of frivolous lawsuits and reinforced by the rapid introduction of things like safety stickers on products. Do you remember how this came to be? For me, the start was the 2 million dollar settlement to a woman who dumped hot coffee in her lap at McDonalds. It was the talk of the office: How could this be? What part of “duh” did she not understand? I remember a bit of an uproar but the judgment stood, and the gates opened: Suddenly, every crack on every sidewalk was fair game, and “ambulance chaser” seemed to go from a passive lawyer joke to a viable business strategy. Bye bye backbone; bye bye personal responsibility: You want to get sued? No? Then play ball.
I’m pausing here, trying to remember the last time I heard the words Tort Reform. I remember it in elections gone by, but as we move toward the 2012 elections I don’t think I’ve heard the term once. My own opinion and observation is that the looming legal threat is less than it used to be, primarily because I think it finally hit a point where people realized that legal action is really expensive, and I think there was some awareness that individuals without a lot of visible means were less of a target because there was probably nothing to go after. Nevertheless, I would say that PC, built on a foundation of litigation fear, managed not only to take root but to grow to a point where speaking out has to be done with seemingly extreme care else someone or some group perceive their chain to be yanked and all Hell break loose.
All that said, I wondering aloud where we might hit a stopping point for all this and maybe even find some way of throttling back to a point where Americans can feel good about their backbones again and once again show some of that personal responsibility and initiative which I believe helped make America the great nation that she is.
So please, stop trying to condition me if that is your intent. Below is a video that triggered me to think about all this; it is a fairly recent video done by the Department of Homeland Security using our tax dollars, and in addition to being some of the worst acting I think I’ve ever seen I believe it is a form of conditioning designed to predispose guilt on a specific class of Americans. Watch it for yourself (you might as well…you helped pay for it) and make up your own mind.
An answer to a call
Hello, and welcome. I've been wondering how to start this but it would appear that hurdle has been jumped. I am a "small c conservative" (someone did a great piece on that while back and I decided it applied to me,) technically a baby-boomer (tail end,) and I'm starting this blog because of a call to do so from one of my favorite haunts: http://iOwnTheWorld.com. Here's a link to the specific post:
http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=85821
I'd planned to start with an introduction and a biography but my thinking is that if you're interesting in what I have to say then you'll pick up those details along the way.
The title comes from a comic book moniker I enjoyed as a kid. Some tough gunnery sergeant would have a fifty caliber on his hip spitting lead, a cigar in his mouth and a determined look on his face, and the large text in the panel would scream Bukka! Bukka! Bukka! as a way of giving a voice to that machine gun.
I am not a machine gun. I am not a gunnery sergeant (although I am a veteran.) This blog is not a metaphor for me charging out of some foxhole with an angry and determined message. Instead, the idea is that this blog gives me a place to go after sweeping through the daily input I get and to jot down my own thoughts and analysis. I do, however, enjoy an occasional cigar.
Dave
http://iowntheworld.com/blog/?p=85821
I'd planned to start with an introduction and a biography but my thinking is that if you're interesting in what I have to say then you'll pick up those details along the way.
The title comes from a comic book moniker I enjoyed as a kid. Some tough gunnery sergeant would have a fifty caliber on his hip spitting lead, a cigar in his mouth and a determined look on his face, and the large text in the panel would scream Bukka! Bukka! Bukka! as a way of giving a voice to that machine gun.
I am not a machine gun. I am not a gunnery sergeant (although I am a veteran.) This blog is not a metaphor for me charging out of some foxhole with an angry and determined message. Instead, the idea is that this blog gives me a place to go after sweeping through the daily input I get and to jot down my own thoughts and analysis. I do, however, enjoy an occasional cigar.
Dave
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